So here we sit late afternoon Eastern Time the day before the pivotal mid-terms.
And I'll admit I have no clue what's going to happen.
I read some polls. I read some analyses.
And we're either holding New Hampshire, North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa Senate seats, and therefore the Senate, or they are all going down the tubes along with Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana.
West Virginia, Montana and most likely South Dakota are already gone.
The odds of flipping seats in Kansas, Kentucky and Georgia seem to grow more remote.
I know I'm an optimist at heart but I truly don't know what to make of all this.
And I hate people who try to explain why the polls will be wrong. Come on we laughed at the great "unskewers" in 2012 who were convinced Romney was going to win despite being 5 points down nationally in most polls and trailing in every key battle ground state except North Carolina. So we can't turn around and start unskewing in 2014. Facts matter.
The only glimmer I can rationally hang my hat on is that it seems in recent mid-terms the polls have under clubbed the eventual Democratic vote in Senate races by about 3%. That would make a world of difference.
Likewise in my state of Connecticut everything is also shrouded in uncertainty. We either keep a Democratic governor and large majority in the General Assembly, or we lose the governor's seat, maybe one or two of the other statewide races, and lose a lot of seats in the General Assembly. The polls are very tight, but the mood of the electorate seems so sour.
So here we are. My gut tells me the Democrats hold on here in Connecticut by a narrow margin. I'm worried about one of the local state representative for whom I serve as campaign treasurer. She serves a district with a lot of farm land and hunters. And they recruited a young pro-gun candidate to run against her because of her support for the gun laws that were passed in the wake of the Sandy Hook school tragedy.
My gut tells me she survives. But I'm worried.
My gut tells me that Democrats hold on to the U.S. Senate - barely.
My guts tells me the Democrats hold on to all 5 Congressional seats in Connecticut.
But I'm worried my gut is running on hope.
And I'll admit I have no clue what's going to happen.
I read some polls. I read some analyses.
And we're either holding New Hampshire, North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa Senate seats, and therefore the Senate, or they are all going down the tubes along with Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana.
West Virginia, Montana and most likely South Dakota are already gone.
The odds of flipping seats in Kansas, Kentucky and Georgia seem to grow more remote.
I know I'm an optimist at heart but I truly don't know what to make of all this.
And I hate people who try to explain why the polls will be wrong. Come on we laughed at the great "unskewers" in 2012 who were convinced Romney was going to win despite being 5 points down nationally in most polls and trailing in every key battle ground state except North Carolina. So we can't turn around and start unskewing in 2014. Facts matter.
The only glimmer I can rationally hang my hat on is that it seems in recent mid-terms the polls have under clubbed the eventual Democratic vote in Senate races by about 3%. That would make a world of difference.
Likewise in my state of Connecticut everything is also shrouded in uncertainty. We either keep a Democratic governor and large majority in the General Assembly, or we lose the governor's seat, maybe one or two of the other statewide races, and lose a lot of seats in the General Assembly. The polls are very tight, but the mood of the electorate seems so sour.
So here we are. My gut tells me the Democrats hold on here in Connecticut by a narrow margin. I'm worried about one of the local state representative for whom I serve as campaign treasurer. She serves a district with a lot of farm land and hunters. And they recruited a young pro-gun candidate to run against her because of her support for the gun laws that were passed in the wake of the Sandy Hook school tragedy.
My gut tells me she survives. But I'm worried.
My gut tells me that Democrats hold on to the U.S. Senate - barely.
My guts tells me the Democrats hold on to all 5 Congressional seats in Connecticut.
But I'm worried my gut is running on hope.
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