First the easy part. Hillary Clinton wins the White House race.
Now for the Electoral College prediction.
Let's start with President Obama's 2012 total. He ended up with 332 electoral votes.
For 2016 I'm thinking Clinton takes most of Obama's 2012 states. I believe only Ohio and Iowa flip to the Republican side and go with Trump. That's a loss of 24 electoral votes total. Ohio will be close and her campaign's superior ground game may still pull it out, but the trend seems to be in the GOP direction. Iowa, while still competitive, will not be as close as Ohio.
So that brings her potential total down to 308.
But then I believe she picks up North Carolina. Obama took the state in 2008, but lost it to Romney in 2012. It is hard to gauge what impact the impediments to voting that the North Carolina GOP enacted following the gutting of the Voting Rights Act will have on the results. But if early voting trends are an indication it is looking like the Democrats should be able to have a good showing in the state. I believe Clinton takes the state and the Democrats pick up the governor's seat as well. The Senate race will be close, and I have my fingers crossed, but the odds are the GOP holds on to that seat.
So adding North Carolina brings Clinton to 323 electoral votes.
Ah, but then there are Nebraska and Maine. These two states award their votes by Congressional district, with the two votes representing the Senate representation in Congress going to the candidate that takes the overall vote in the state. In 2008 Obama took the Nebraska congressional district that includes Omaha. In some years the more rural 2nd Congressional District in Maine has gone to a Republican even though the Democratic candidate takes the state overall.
A week or so ago I would have said these two would be a wash. Clinton had a good chance of taking Omaha, while Trump would take Maine's second district. But with Clinton's momentum in red states blunted by the FBI shenanigans of Directory Comey I'm thinking now that Trump still picks up one vote in Maine without Clinton picking up one in Nebraska.
Bottom line then is Clinton 322, Trump 216.
Of course one Democratic elector in Washington, who was a Bernie supporter, has said if Clinton wins Washington state he won't vote for her when the time comes for the Electoral College to meet and officially elect the next President. Now I don't know if the elector is free to vote for anyone he/she chooses, or if it has to be someone who was on the ballot for the election. So depending on the law, if the Washington state elector follows through on his statement, the final tally will be:
Clinton 321, Trump 216, and 1 vote for either Bernie Sanders or Jill Stein (I'm assuming that's who the Washington state elector will vote for).
There you have it. Use this information at your own risk.