Apparently recently our nation crossed a line many felt would never be crossed. For those who believe in American Exceptionalism, who view the USA as that shining City on a Hill, who actually believe the Statue of Liberty shines a light unto the rest of the world, these are dark days indeed.

Now you might think I'm referring to the government of the United States, yes that United States, separating parents and children, transporting the children, some as young as three months old, around the country and putting them in camps. 

You might think I'm referring to the President of these very same United States advocating for tearing up the Constitution and due process to kick as many people he doesn't like out of the country as quickly as possible.

But no that's not it at all. Apparently, according to our esteemed guardians of democracy, the Washington press establishment, these are truly dark days because one of the faces and voices of the administration and its policies was denied service at a restaurant in Virginia.

I'm sure you've heard the details of the story by now. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Trump's press secretary, who lies to the press and the American people on a daily basis (well the days they actually hold press briefings), and has spun the various stories and explanations for this policy that violates American and International laws, was asked to leave a restaurant. The owner asked her to leave after her staff told her they felt uncomfortable serving Sanders. Much of the staff are either LGBTQ and/or immigrants. Since this Administration is expending a lot of time and energy trying to insure LGBTQ people can be treated as second class citizens, and are referring to immigrants, and beginning to treat them the same way the Nazis did the Jews, they were not inclined to break bread with and serve the face and voice of these policies.

You can agree or disagree about this. Reasonable people already have. I can't say I'm 100% certain how I feel about it myself, both from a philosophical viewpoint and the practical stance of tactics.

What I am sure about though is the entirely hypocritical and outrageous screaming from both the right wing, the Administration and the press about the incident. And yes the usual mealy-mouthed, let's all play nice together reactions from the usual Democratic suspects - I'm looking at you Axelrod, Schumer and Pelosi.

The hypocrisy of the conservatives in this matter is neither surprising nor stunning. We've come to expect nothing less from these snowflakes. They have spent years championing the rights of businesses to refuse service to gays in the name of religious freedom. They rallied to the cause of the County Clerk, Kim Davis, in Kentucky who refused to issue marriage licenses to same sex couples because it didn't square with her personal religious beliefs. But a private business owner doesn't want to serve a member of the Trump Administration because of how they treat the groups of people many of her workers are drawn from, and it's the end of civilization as we know it.

The media is even worse. We are putting kids in cages. In the United States. In 2018. We are ripping families apart. The President is advocating for the end of due process when it comes to immigration. He is stopping attempts at asylum, a violation of laws and treaties the United States is party to. He advocates violence against protesters and calls both the press and his opponents "treasonous". He lies every time he opens his mouth. 

But the real calamity for the Washington press corps is a restaurant in Virginia refusing to serve Sanders, or Rep. Maxine Waters calling for public protest and shaming of Trump Administration members to combat the policies that have us sliding towards authoritarianism. 

Lock up kids. Do away with civil liberties and civil rights. Threaten the press. Make nice with Nazis and dictators. Lead your crowds in threats against political opponents while you call them disparaging names. Question the birthplace of the first black President. But yeah civility died when someone told the bully "enough!"

Which is what makes the reaction of the inside the Beltway Democratic leadership even more infuriating. The media and Republicans have been playing a one way game for decades now. The GOP has been saying nasty things about Democrats, have been trampling the norms of our democracy for a long time without being called on it. Stealing a Supreme Court seat, unprecedented use of the filibuster, playing into fear and prejudice and using every tragedy as an excuse to go after Democrats. 

But the Democratic leadership still acts like this is high school civics class. If they take the high road and make good principled rational arguments and act like the reasonable adults, they will win the day and democracy will be saved.

Well it ain't working. The GOP was nasty as nasty could be over the last decade. The press never called them on it and they were never punished at the polls for the behavior. 

If democracy in America is worth saving, then it's worth taking off the gloves for. Show some spine and some grit Beltway Democrats. The rank and file is already way ahead of you on this. Listen to your base for once instead of the pundit class.

A debate heard often as President Obama took office was whether to hold people accountable for the disasters of the Bush Administration, or to turn the page and move forward, hopefully together.

There were plenty of items people felt required attention: the alleged war crimes, a war of choice in Iraq under false pretenses, the "enhanced interrogations". 

There was the outing of an undercover CIA agent for political motives, the firing of states attorneys, the attacks on civil liberties in the wake of 9/11. And the beat went on.

Rightly or wrongly, the Obama Administration did not go after people from the Bush Administration. The nation teetered on the brink of economic collapse. Two wars were being fought and were not going well. I'm sure the political calculus was that now wasn't the time for what would be seen by many as partisan political prosecutions.

Assuming a Democrat replaces Donald Trump at some point, it has to be different this time. Too much has happened outside the norms of a democracy, of a functioning republic. Examples must be made. A price has to be exacted to deter this from happening again.

First there is the unprecedented corruption. Trump and his family are using the White House as an extension of their business and personal finances. Money is pouring in from foreign and domestic sources to Trump and Trump related businesses and are influencing policy direction. People need to be prosecuted, fined and sent to jail so the next person thinks twice before deciding to seek the highest office so they can use the government as their personal ATM. I'm thinking Trump, Ivanka, Jared and Don Jr at a minimum have to know the inside of an age appropriate detention center, aka a jail.

At the least there has to be laws passed that nobody gets on a ballot for President in any state without releasing a sufficient number of years of tax returns. And once elected any investments or business holdings must be sold off, or placed in a true double-blind trust.

Then there is the political corruption. Obviously many Cabinet members seems to be violating ethics laws.  

But mostly I'm thinking of the terrible, unspeakable horror of these past weeks. The turning away of asylum seekers at the Southern border and the zero tolerance policy where children, some only months old, are taken from their parents. And since the children and adults fall under diferent jurisdictions and agencies there is the real possibility some will never be reunited.

This is a true crime against humanity. Again people should be investigated and if warranted, prosecuted, as a deterrent from any administration going down this road ever again. This would include everyone from Trump and his creepy henchman Stephen Miller all the way down to the border guards physically blocking people from entering legally at a port of entry.

Whether you gave the orders or were just following orders doesn't matter. The concentration camps, the Holocaust, were legal under German law. We executed people who were just following orders, who were simply enforcing the law. We prosecuted and imprisoned SS guards. Likewise with this Trump policy, from top to bottom, anyone involved with this crime against humanity must be held to account.
 
I'm sure if a Democratic administration goes down this path there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth. Republicans will scream. But when do they not scream and obstruct? We saw how they responded to any good will or overtures from Obama. They will fight tooth and nail, vilify, obstruct and refuse to cooperate with the next Democratic President under any and all circumstances.

The Beltway pundits will be apoplectic at what our politics have become. But they take Democrats to task for showing any backbone and never hold Republicans accountable for anything they do, so it is time for Democrats at the national level to ignore their double standards.

Still, I'm sure this could be set up so it is independent of the White House, the DOJ, and has Congressional oversight. It will still be called a partisan political witch hunt, but it should be fair and open.

But the reasons for doing this have nothing to do with partisan politics, or punishing political rivals. It is about restoring dignity, honor and the rule of law to our country. It is about reclaiming and reaffirming the ideals we have always claimed as our own as Americans, even when we fall short of achieving them. 

There must be accountability so that nobody runs for President again thinking they can make the U.S. government an extension of their personal business empire. There must be accountability so nobody runs for President again without all their foreign entanglements being known. There must be accountability so no future administration thinks they can commit atrocities in our name and then live freely among us as respected members of society.

​This time we can't simply turn the page. 




​ 

Another installment in what could be a daily series on how a democracy dies, or alternatively, death of a democracy.

Today we visit something that struck me after reading about Dear Leader's latest campaign rally in Indiana. There was the usual bluster and egotistical rantings befitting a wannabe despot.

But what really caught my attention and added to my dread was the crowd. 

There were the chants from the greatest hits of course, the obligatory "Drain the Swamp" and "Lock Her Up!" Obviously irony and facts are in short supply at these rallies.

What really caught my eye though was reading that the crowd booed Obama's name, but cheered at the mention of North Korean dictator Kim Jung-un.

Seems it was not that long ago that Trump was tweeting about "Little Rocket Man" and challenging him to a dick measuring contest as to who had the bigger missiles.

And during that time, whenever Trump held one of his never ending ego stroking campaign rallies, you know rather than, like, governing; whenever he mentioned Kim the crowd would boo lustily. I'm surprised the crowds didn't do a take off riff on "Lock Her Up!" and begin "Blow Him Up!" chants.

Then as the Olympics came and it looked like things might thaw, especially between North and South Korea, Trump mentioned Kim Jung-un at a rally. I forget now which one. The crowd on cue began to boo. Trump stopped them and told them to be nice, telling them that good things might be happening so let's wait and see.

And now in Indiana it had come full circle. Kim Jung-un was now cheered. He was one of the good guys now because he was making Trump look good on the world stage. Sure he's still a murderous dictator, but he's cooperating and might give Trump a win and a Nobel Prize! Yay!

And I wondered as to the thought process that goes into that transformation. Did any of the people now cheering Kim wonder about the fact that some mere months ago he was the personification of evil? That he was an enemy of the United States?

And now he's a good guy. Not because his behavior suddenly changed. Sure he stopped testing nukes. And he said it was for all the right reasons. But it seemed mostly to do with the fact that their missile testing site had partially collapsed due to the last powerful test. 

No the whole turnabout seemed to be because Trump now told them Kim Jung-un was good. And because Kim was treating Trump well and making him look good. So boos became confused silence became cheers. All in a matter of months.

I'm beginning to suspect in order to be a Trump supporter, you have to be like the Drew Barrymore character in Fifty First Dates. Every day the slate is wiped clean and you start over with no memory of what you were doing or thinking or supporting or cheering or booing the day before. If Trump says it's good, you cheer. If he says it's bad, you boo. That something, or someone, can go from one to the other and back again in a matter of weeks or days or hours, and what that means, doesn't seem to be able to break through into your consciousness.

Just another ingredient necessary to have an authoritarian government rather than a democracy or a republic. Sigh.    

​  

I know I am slowly turning into an old crank. In fact my wife would take issue with the accuracy of including the adverb "slowly". That being said the continuing assault on our democracy from within, and the failure of the checks and balances that are supposed to uphold and protect our Constitution, is becoming a constant source of irritation.

Latest Exhibit A in this ongoing complaint, Ivanka Trump, daughter of the President, dispatched to represent the USA at the closing ceremonies of the Winter Olympics in South Korea a week or so ago. Harmless enough by itself, perhaps. The fact that she is working as an advisor to the President in the White House however is not. And the fact that she was sent with a message or messages from the President to the President of South Korea regarding the volatile situation on the Korean Peninsula, even though she has neither a security clearance, nor any expertise on the issues, is also not harmless.

This is how banana republics are run, not the supposed most powerful nation on the planet, not a democracy.

But as infuriating as all of that is, what is most annoying is the enabling of this behavior by two entities that are supposed to protect us from turning into a second rate authoritarian country. The lack of oversight or push back from Congress, specifically the Republican majority and leadership of the Congress, allows this assault on our democracy to continue. The other entity is the free press which has done it's best to normalize the truly bizarre and unprecedented actions of this Administration.

Case in point for the media happened during the time Ivanka was at the Olympics. It involved one of my favorite targets for journalistic malfeasance, NBC News and the Today Show. They were touting their exclusive interview with Ivanka Trump. You know since she was at the Olympics, and most of NBC has been there for the duration of the Olympics, it was a natural.

Now I'll admit I did not watch the interview. As soon as they began playing it up to get people to stay tuned, I turned the channel. I turned the channel during the evening broadcast as they trumpeted their interview, and again the next morning during The Today Show. See sentence one re: turning into a crank.

I have seen and heard some highlights however. Apparently the big takeaways were Ivanka being asked to comment on her dad's bright idea to arm teachers in schools, and her being asked about whether or not all the woman who have accused the President of sexual assault should be believed. Spoiler alert: she found arming teachers worthy of discussion, and thought asking the President's daughter about alleged sexual misdeeds to be highly inappropriate.

To me, if we had a media up to the task of protecting and preserving democracy, the statement about it being inappropriate to ask the President's daughter about any issue should have immediately led to a deeper line of questioning. I can buy that argument if said daughter is a private citizen trying to live her own life out of the spotlight. But that is not the situation we have here.

But this is how the media normalizes the debacle that is the Trump Administration. They stay on the surface and do or say nothing about all the things that are happening that are so dubious and so outside the norms of American governance and American democracy.

There should have been push back that she is not just a daughter. She is working as an adviser in the White House. That should carry with it certain responsibilities and answering to the American people, in this case through their proxy, American journalists.

The natural progression should have been a series of questions such as:

• Should members of the President's family be able to serve in capacities such as she and her husband are serving
• What training or expertise does she, or Jared for that matter, have for the duties they are being given, especially in foreign policy
• Does she have the proper security clearance to have delivered messages to the South Korean President regarding the threat of nuclear war in the Korean peninsula

And that's just for starters. Frankly any journalist interviewing Trump, or Ivanka, or Jared who doesn't raise the issue of the Emoluments Clause to the Constitution, and how the Trumps and Kushners are using their positions in the White House to make money for themselves and their businesses, is not doing their job. You don't even have to get into money laundering or alleged criminal activity being run out of the Oval Office. Just deal with obviously enriching themselves at the public trough and how foreign countries are using this to essentially bribe them. 

What is further infuriating is that you know damned well if a Democratic Administration did a tenth of what the Trump Administration is doing, the press would be all over it, and Congress would be holding hearings around the clock.

But for whatever reasons they are not doing their jobs. That is partially why we are where we are today. Certain items should be asked every day. Yes you'll be ridiculed and called 'fake news'. But being popular and getting to sit at the cool table with the cool kids didn't used to be why people became journalists. It was to comfort the afflicted and afflict the comfortable as I recall. Too many of today's journalists, especially the ones on television, want to be among the comfortable, if they aren't already.

​Today's crank, over and out. 









​

For today's installment of What Happened to Democracy in America, Daddy?, we turn to the Today Show.

Now I'll admit I didn't catch the entire segment. I was drifting in and out of consciousness. And then my wife changed the channel from a local station giving breathless extended coverage to a one inch snow storm to the NBC affiliate. And one of the Today Show anchors, I believe it was Savannah Guthrie, was in the middle of an interview with the latest Designated Administration Liar, Sarah Huckabee Sanders. 

The topic of course was the forcing out of Andrew McCabe, number 2 official at the FBI, because apparently he believes in doing his job rather than protecting whatever party or person happens to be in power at the moment.

Now Guthrie began by making a valid point. If Comrade Trump is so innocent of any wrongdoing regarding the Russian probe, why has he continually gone after personally and gotten rid of, any Department of Justice or FBI official involved in the probe?

Sanders then went on a rant of how "nothing has come of" this investigation. Everyone has said no evidence of wrongdoing has been found. Guthrie let that one ride while returning to her original point.

Now I'm no journalist. But a couple of follow up questions immediately came to mind. If nothing has come of the investigation and there's nothing to it, why have there been two guilty pleas and two indictments to date. And these aren't lightweight or low ranking underlings either. We're talking about a guilty plea from the President's original National Security Advisor. And we're talking about indictments against the campaign chair of the Trump campaign. The man who was chair of the campaign during the Republican national convention.

But yeah nothing to see here. And no need to point that out to the audience at home.

At one point while Guthrie was going on about all the officials involved in the Russian investigation that Trump has either fired or had others target and oust the name of former FBI Director James Comey was mentioned. This allowed Sanders to go on a tirade against Comey. She repeated that Comey had leaked materials to reporters and was unfit to be part of the investigation and Trump was right to get rid of him. And of course that whole Comey leaked classified or sensitive materials report that Trump and Fox and Friends promoted has been debunked by fact checking organizations.

Guthrie's response was along the lines of "we'll have to leave it there. Look forward to seeing you at the State of the Union tonight"? Really? Our democracy, system of checks and balances, our Constitution are under direct assault from a foreign power, with the full cooperation of the White House and the majority party of Congress and "we'll have to leave it there?" Go ahead and drop your lies on my audience with no push back and I'll see you later?

So in case you're wondering kids why America is no longer a democracy but a banana republic dictatorship, it's because one of the institutions that was supposed to protect us, the free press, continually failed to do their jobs and let us down. Otherwise Republicans and conservative pundits might accuse them of not being fair and balanced. And they might not get invited to all the cool parties.

​And something about emails.

 

So since January 20, 2017, one could post random thoughts of disgust, despair and consternation.

But what to pick? There are dozens of events or statements made weekly, if not daily, that would have been major scandals in previous administrations, that don't even make the top two or three for the day and quickly disappear from public and media consciousness.

So let me start with this one:

Every day Trump is in office, America gets a little meaner, crasser and more vulgar. And it starts at the top.

This past Saturday my wife and I made the 45 minute drive (give or take) from our home in the northwest corner of Connecticut to attend the Woman's Rally at the State Capitol in Hartford. We had hoped to attend the march in DC as friends of ours were going on a bus from our town to attend that event. The bus was leaving early in the morning and returning late Saturday night. Unfortunately there was no room on the bus. But when my wife started reading online about the companion rally in Hartford, we knew were going.

My wife followed the organizing for the event via Facebook. They were anticipating 4,000 people. The unofficial crowd estimate reported in the local media is that 10,000 people showed up. 

Given the size of the crowd, even though we arrived about 40 minutes early and were just across a narrow parking area from the Capitol steps where the speakers were, we could not see the speakers. And some of them we could not hear too well either. And if the speaker was too soft spoken the crowd around us would begin talking among themselves. As I heard one person near me say, when we hear the people in front start cheering or clapping we do too.

Among the speakers were the Governor, the state Comptroller, and at least one state legislator. The leaders of several organizations that deal with women's issues, especially violence against women, spoke as well.

But what I took away from this and will remember is not anything any of the speakers said. What struck me the most was the energy of the crowd. Yes, people are angry, but mostly there was a celebratory mood. This was a happy and festive crowd. And determined.

The other thing both my wife and I noticed was the diversity of the crowd. And I don't just mean in terms of color or sexual orientation or gender identity. There was a big variety of ages as well. And yes there were lots of men present as well.

We were pleased to find out as the day went on, and via messages later that our families, on both sides were doing their civic duty throughout the country. Two nephews and the older nephews spouse marched in Vermont. Our older son was among the 120,000 plus marching in Boston. A cousin and her young daughter walked in the NYC march. Besides our friends from town, my sister-in-laws daughter and one of our nieces both marched in DC. Another cousin was part of the yuuuuuge crowd marching in LA. And another nephew did some extra shifts at his work in Philadelphia so a co-worker could attend the DC march. 

And it wasn't just blue states either. A retired teacher who is a friend of my wife's went to Austin, TX so they could babysit for her daughter-in-laws children so that the daughter-in-law could attend the march in DC. While there, my wife's friend attended the march in Austin. And my ex-brother-in-law marched in Murray, KY.

In these dark times these rallies and marches are uplifting. It is good to see we are not alone and that all is not hopeless. It is important for people to get engaged and stay engaged. We can only hope that all the people who showed up throughout the country and the world will find ways to get involved and take positive actions to make things better. And even if that doesn't translate directly to political activity, let's hope it at least means working in other ways with organizations on the front lines of so many issues. And that it translates at the least to registering and voting!

The final memories we have of the event in Hartford were some of the signs. They ranged from provocative, to eye-catching to clever and funny. Including a random sample below.

Be the Hope. Be the Change. Be the Resistance.

​ 

 The Trump Administration will be the most corrupt in American history.

All the financial corruption of the Grant and Harding administrations, usually ranked by historians as the most corrupt, coupled with the political corruption of the Nixon Administration.

Only this time he gets away with it.

The Republicans in Congress will turn a blind eye to the clear Constitutional violations as long as Trump lets them cut taxes for billionaires, get rid of health insurance for tens of millions of Americans, gut protections for the environment, worker and product safety, get rid of Social Security and Medicare, and remove protections saving us from the excesses of Wall Street and big banks.

The media, fixated on ratings and clicks, and access to those in power, will fawn over anything he gets remotely correct. We can already see the pattern developing where Trump lies or misstates something but the press gives him favorable headlines and gives him credit for achieving things he had nothing to do with. 

Trump is going to run the White House like a crime syndicate and shake down operation. I believe it is obvious the man is not worth 10 billions dollars. In fact he probably owes more money to people and foreign entities than he's worth. But unchecked he will easily be worth 10 billion dollars by the time he leaves office. Just like his role model, Putin, who runs Russia like a criminal syndicate for him and his close supporters.

The press will allow him to communicate by tweet. 140 characters to explain what should be complex issues. The media will dutifully fill in the blanks in the most positive way possible. There will be no opportunity for questions or follow-ups to try to ascertain exactly what Trump thinks or is trying to say. One only needs to see the way the press handled the Sprint jobs announcement or the response to the House GOP ethics vote to see the pattern developing. Trump lies, or says something vague, obscure or inaccurate. The media generates positive headlines for him.

And when is the last time a reporter asked Trump about his taxes? Or his debts? Or his fraudulent University? Or his clearly criminal Foundation? Even Constitutional violations will be reported as partisan political fights.

Even today I watched a report of how CEOs of companies are developing contingencies and strategies to react if their company should become the target of a Trump tweet. CEOs developing strategies. To protect themselves. From an American President. From individualized, personal attacks. And this is not reported as being unprecedented or just plain nuts. Nope, it's the new normal. Nothing to see here. Just move along America. 

But you know, someone used a private email server. So the fact we avoided that will be great comfort as we're marched off to the camps.

I mean seriously...

I am almost 60 years old. I've seen and been involved with many campaigns and elections. Experienced exhilaration and agonizing disappointment. But this...last night...this is different.

This one hurts. This one makes me physically ill. And it's not like I was a huge Hillary fan. I respect her. I've always thought she was one of the most unfairly maligned figures in public life these past 30 years or so. But last night was the first time I ever voted for her. Twice in the Connecticut Democratic primary, in 2008 and 2016, I voted for her opponent.

But this one has taken the wind out of my sails. I'm angry, disgusted and I'm afraid.

Maybe it's being the father of a gay son. Maybe it's having a gay sister, and wondering what life will be like for her and my sister-in-law in a deep red state.

Maybe it's having another son who is working a job without benefits who is relying on the Obamacare exchange to be able to afford medical coverage. 

Or maybe it's witnessing the torrent of hate and ugliness that has been unleashed around the country during the campaign season, knowing that bullying, intolerance and worse will become more prevalent.

It's all that and more. We are going to take so many steps backwards in this country, civil rights, climate change, consumer protection, development of alternate, clean energy. We are quickly going to become the world's most powerful dinosaur, circa the time the giant meteor is about to hit.

The banks and Wall Street are about to run over all of us again. No protection from the federal government. Help with college costs and tuition? Forget it. You thought the EpiPen sticker shock was outrageous? Get ready, we are about to be fed once again to insurance companies and drug companies.

But mostly it's the promise of America that died last night. Or at least went into a coma. Last night told us that the American Dream is not intended for certain people. Muslims, Latinos, African-Americans, gays, transgender, no American Dream of being created equal for you.

Tonight my wife showed me her Facebook feed. People upset and relating stories of how upset their kids are. The children wondering how someone so mean, such a bully, could become President.

And one woman kept responding. Kept saying that all this anxiety could not be coming from the kids watching the news, or listening to what was going on around them. It had to be coming from the parents. She told the parents essentially to suck it up, that the country was getting the change it so desperately needed, so everybody hang in there. Yeah, like you all hung in there with Obama when he came to office in 2009 with the country in such dire straits.

And it got me to thinking. What is this change the country so desperately needs? Let's hearken back to days of yesteryear, oh let's say January 2009. Barack Obama becomes President. The banks and world financial system are teetering on the brink of total collapse. 700,000 Americans a month are losing their jobs. People are losing half the value of their retirement accounts and college funds. The iconic American automobile industry is circling the drain. The annual budget deficits are at 1.2 trillion, with a "t", dollars.  And that's just the domestic problems.

Fast forward to November 2016. After nearly 8 years of President Obama the country has seen over 70 consecutive months of private sector job growth, the longest streak since they started keeping such statistics. Financial institutions have recovered; American automobile companies are thriving; incomes for average people are finally moving upwards,; the annual budget deficits have been cut by about 2/3. We won't even get into "General Motors is alive and bin Laden is dead", or the 20 million Americans that now have health care coverage.

Okay and I know things are far from perfect. Too much of the recovery has gone to the top. But that is largely due to forces and policies that were already in place, not by design of the Obama plans. And the recovery has finally begin to hit the middle and working class as well.

So when you contrast January 2009 with November 2016, one has to ask, what change do we so desperately need that is not already in place and that requires turning our backs on large segments of our fellow citizens?    

I'll admit I don't get it. But maybe that woman on Facebook can explain it to me. I'm sure it's as clear as the color of the nose on her face.

Here we go.

First the easy part. Hillary Clinton wins the White House race.

Now for the Electoral College prediction.

Let's start with President Obama's 2012 total. He ended up with 332 electoral votes.

For 2016 I'm thinking Clinton takes most of Obama's 2012 states. I believe only Ohio and Iowa flip to the Republican side and go with Trump. That's a loss of 24 electoral votes total. Ohio will be close and her campaign's superior ground game may still pull it out, but the trend seems to be in the GOP direction. Iowa, while still competitive, will not be as close as Ohio.

So that brings her potential total down to 308. 

But then I believe she picks up North Carolina. Obama took the state in 2008, but lost it to Romney in 2012. It is hard to gauge what impact the impediments to voting that the North Carolina GOP enacted following the gutting of the Voting Rights Act will have on the results. But if early voting trends are an indication it is looking like the Democrats should be able to have a good showing in the state. I believe Clinton takes the state and the Democrats pick up the governor's seat as well. The Senate race will be close, and I have my fingers crossed, but the odds are the GOP holds on to that seat.

So adding North Carolina brings Clinton to 323 electoral votes.

Ah, but then there are Nebraska and Maine. These two states award their votes by Congressional district, with the two votes representing the Senate representation in Congress going to the candidate that takes the overall vote in the state. In 2008 Obama took the Nebraska congressional district that includes Omaha. In some years the more rural 2nd Congressional District in Maine has gone to a Republican even though the Democratic candidate takes the state overall.

A week or so ago I would have said these two would be a wash. Clinton had a good chance of taking Omaha, while Trump would take Maine's second district. But with Clinton's momentum in red states blunted by the FBI shenanigans of Directory Comey I'm thinking now that Trump still picks up one vote in Maine without Clinton picking up one in Nebraska.

Bottom line then is Clinton 322, Trump 216.

Of course one Democratic elector in Washington, who was a Bernie supporter, has said if Clinton wins Washington state he won't vote for her when the time comes for the Electoral College to meet and officially elect the next President. Now I don't know if the elector is free to vote for anyone he/she chooses, or if it has to be someone who was on the ballot for the election. So depending on the law, if the Washington state elector follows through on his statement, the final tally will be:

Clinton 321, Trump 216, and 1 vote for either Bernie Sanders or Jill Stein (I'm assuming that's who the Washington state elector will vote for).

  There you have it. Use this information at your own risk.